Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc99c…62ae other 384 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$460 (+3%) realized +$468 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%124W / 211L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$865
7 days−$79
14 days+$84
30 days+$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$520
sports 40% +$1,148
crypto 4% −$271
world 1% −$195
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 +37.2% +24.1% 33% 33% -12.6%
≤30d 145 +24.1% +12.3% 35% 35% -6.9%
≤90d 335 +11.8% +1.2% 37% 37% -9.4%
all 335 +11.8% +1.2% 37% 37% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 37% -9.4%
10% -8.5% 36% -18.0%
15% -17.4% 36% -26.0%
20% -25.5% 31% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$44 vs −$25 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$1,775
Realized+$468
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses124 / 211
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions47
Markets (closed)335 / 384
History coverage65d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 335 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Yes 81¢ 80¢ $396 $391 −$5 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 44¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Norway 60¢ 58¢ $90 $88 −$2 (-2%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $70 $82 +$12 (+17%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 60¢ $40 $45 +$5 (+14%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+18%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 44¢ $12 $18 +$5 (+40%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-8%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 52¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $11 $16 +$5 (+43%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+50%)
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 16¢ 16¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 54¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Portugal 30¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 +$20 +132%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $154 +$119 +78%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $542 −$318 -59%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 2 Ecuador? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Sweden 0 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $16 +$109 +704%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $184 +$70 +38%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $4 +$231 +5559%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $153 +$68 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $103 +$230 +223%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $510 +$193 +38%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 212.5 Jun 15 $82 −$82 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 1 Scotland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 3 Scotland? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 0 Scotland? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Morocco? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $511 −$511 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $123 −$104 -84%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 15 $103 −$103 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 +$59 +115%
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World C Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$182 +1752%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $15 +$13 +84%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $138 +$77 +56%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $21 −$17 -81%
Will Australia finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 14 $15 −$13 -88%
Exact Score: Australia 2 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $31 −$9 -29%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $82 +$75 +91%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $82 +$140 +170%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $16 +$84 +544%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $205 +$146 +72%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $306 1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 58¢ $85 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $197 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $305 2h
Will Cape Verde win the Fair Play Award for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $82 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $16 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $14 4h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 4h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $153 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 4h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $305 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $102 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 10¢ $7 14h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $154 22h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 62¢ $43 22h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 23h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Cabo Verde 90¢ $104 24h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $154 26h
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 26h
Exact Score: Spain 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 26h
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Cabo Verde 64¢ $153 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,775.22 · official $1,775.81 (match) · 856 history records