Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:06:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc99e…3cd5 sports 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$613 (+41%) realized +$618 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$386now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 56d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$596
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-48.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +70.3% +54.1% 100% 100% +54.1%
≤90d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% +40.1%
all 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.6% 33% +40.1%
10% -53.6% 33% +26.7%
15% -58.0% 33% +14.5%
20% -62.2% 33% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +55% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$700 vs −$49 · ×14.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.07 per $1 lost it wins $7.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$386
Realized+$618
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 7
History coverage56d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 47¢ 46¢ $153 $151 −$2 (-1%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Under 51¢ 50¢ $102 $101 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 63¢ 62¢ $85 $84 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $51 $50 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $995 +$700 +70%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 44m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 45m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $86 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $155 1h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $995 40d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 56d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $386.48 · official $386.48 (match) · 8 history records