Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc99f…ccd7 other 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%15W / 233L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$39
sports 19% −$16
politics 8% −$6
culture 8% −$6
economics 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
world 4% $0
tech 1% −$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 81 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 248 -0.2% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses15 / 233
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)248 / 248
History coverage130d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 248 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $268 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $571 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $419 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $358 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $476 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $341 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $588 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $528 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $442 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $774 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $156 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $259 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $234 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $387 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $413 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $354 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Seattle Sounders FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $194 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 15 $448 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $341 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $245 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $422 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $390 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $192 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $683 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $440 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $518 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $397 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 09 $348 −$1 -0%
Will Columbus Crew win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $304 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 08 $338 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 28m
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 1h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $47 3h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 4h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 9h
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $47 11h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 18h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 20h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $47 21h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $47 23h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $47 28h
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 29h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $47 31h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $48 32h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $48 34h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $48 35h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $48 37h
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $48 39h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 39h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 42h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $48 43h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $48 45h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $48 46h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $48 47h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $48 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $48 2d
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $49 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1412 history records