Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:16:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9a6…cbda sports 273 markets active 1d ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$169 (-2%) realized −$169 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate40%109W / 164L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$44est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$45
14 days−$44
30 days−$86
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 39% +$62
other 28% −$40
weather 14% +$20
crypto 12% −$17
world 6% −$265
politics 1% −$4
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.1% -24.1% 27% 17% -21.7%
≤30d 64 -11.3% -19.8% 38% 27% -19.2%
≤90d 217 -7.6% -16.4% 35% 28% -11.4%
all 273 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 29% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 29% -12.0%
10% -18.3% 21% -20.5%
15% -26.2% 16% -28.1%
20% -33.4% 14% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$8 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$169
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses109 / 164
Est. fees paid−$44
Open positions0
Markets (closed)273 / 273
History coverage121d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 273 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $4 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 17 $7 −$6 -81%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $8 $0 -1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $9 +$1 +7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $18 −$7 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $28 −$5 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the fight be won by submission? Jun 15 $13 −$1 -8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $36 +$21 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$5 -40%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $8 +$2 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -4%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Thailand vs United Arab Emirates Jun 13 $18 −$17 -98%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -14%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $18 −$2 -10%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -42%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $17 +$3 +18%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +53%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $7 +$7 +109%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 10 $4 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $7 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $3 $0 +14%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $3 −$1 -37%
T20 Asian Games, Qualifier: Oman vs Hong Kong, China Jun 05 $3 −$3 -81%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $137 −$38 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $9 −$1 -10%
Will Slingshot launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 01 $4 $0 -6%
Will Relay launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 01 $17 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 31 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 31 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 31 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $20 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 31 $7 −$2 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET May 31 $8 +$1 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 19¢ $2 33h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 20¢ $2 33h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 14¢ $2 33h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL Yes $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $6 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $1 34h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 88¢ $8 35h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 88¢ $8 35h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka $2 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 28¢ $7 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL New Zealand 71¢ $7 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 85¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 17¢ $1 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY New Zealand 83¢ $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 66¢ $7 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 2d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 80¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL No 83¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? SELL Yes 17¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1069 history records