Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:18:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9a7…320c other 318 markets active 1h ago coverage 223d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 223d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$337 (+3%) realized +$74 · open +$263
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%72W / 229L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$1,330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$23
14 days+$8
30 days+$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$251
sports 24% +$98
politics 11% −$70
world 6% −$3
tech 4% −$5
economics 2% +$6
crypto 1% +$13
culture 1% −$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -33.1% -39.4% 12% 8% -10.7%
≤30d 35 -23.9% -31.1% 17% 9% -8.3%
≤90d 38 -22.9% -30.3% 16% 8% -8.6%
all 301 -2.5% -11.8% 24% 10% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 10% -9.2%
10% -20.2% 7% -17.9%
15% -27.9% 5% -25.9%
20% -35.0% 2% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

223d coverage
Net worth$1,330
Realized+$74
Unrealized+$263
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses72 / 229
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions17
Markets (closed)301 / 318
History coverage223d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 301 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 37¢ 56¢ $365 $552 +$187 (+51%)
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $364 $442 +$78 (+21%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $98 $88 −$10 (-10%)
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? No 52¢ 52¢ $68 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+0%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $33 $36 +$2 (+6%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 68¢ 72¢ $26 $27 +$2 (+6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+58%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 48¢ 52¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+9%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+34%)
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? No 24¢ 24¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 35¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+34%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-3%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 22¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 6¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 27 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $182 $0 +0%
Sentient FDV above $400M one day after launch? Jun 27 $294 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026? Jun 27 $1 $0 -28%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 Jun 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Zcash dip to $300 by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $60 −$4 -7%
Sentient FDV above $200M one day after launch? Jun 27 $164 −$3 -2%
Will Brian Keefe win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 27 $7 −$2 -30%
Will Paradex launch a token by December 31 2025? Jun 27 $9 −$3 -29%
Will Infrared launch a token by March 31 2026? Jun 27 $119 −$16 -13%
Infinex FDV above $4B one day after launch? Jun 27 $8 −$1 -17%
OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025? Jun 27 $14 −$5 -36%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 27 $42 −$23 -54%
Will Donald Trump be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $227 −$6 -2%
Will Jalen Suggs win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Jun 27 $154 −$24 -16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Gavin Newsom be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 27 $10 −$2 -22%
VOOI FDV above $1B one day after launch? Jun 27 $4 −$2 -37%
HumidiFi FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Willie Green win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? Jun 27 $17 −$1 -8%
Will Apple reach $352 in November? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $354 +$82 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $42 +$13 +32%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$34 +57%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $73 −$11 -15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $244 +$8 +3%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $794 +$45 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $332 −$4 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $3 −$1 -25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 20 $245 −$5 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 01 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Mar 01 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Mar 01 $144 −$9 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 01 $2 +$3 +151%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Mar 01 $5 $0 +5%
Paradex FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 01 $86 +$108 +126%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Mar 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Mar 01 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 01 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Mar 01 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close Mar 01 $5 −$2 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $1 38m
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $2 50m
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 55¢ $37 1h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 53¢ $5 3h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 53¢ $16 3h
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? SELL No 23¢ $41 4h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 8h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 13h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 14h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $5 14h
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 52¢ $58 15h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $6 21h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 22h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $18 24h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $8 24h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 25h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $1 27h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $3 27h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 33h
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 47¢ $4 33h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 36h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37h
Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY No 52¢ $52 37h
Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? BUY No 24¢ $50 37h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,329.69 · official $1,329.53 (match) · 3500 history records