Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:45:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc9a8…81ae
crypto · 1091 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$33 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$33 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses856 / 234
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1090 / 1091
History coverage64d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1090 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days+$2
14 days−$15
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Down 90¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$27
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 501 +0.3% -9.2% 85% 77% -9.2%
≤30d 797 -3.3% -12.5% 77% 70% -12.1%
≤90d 1090 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 73% -11.4%
all 1090 -2.2% -11.5% 79% 73% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 73% -11.4%
10% -20.0% 21% -19.9%
15% -27.7% 7% -27.6%
20% -34.8% 6% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.11 · official $1.07 (match) · 2482 history records