Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9a9…4898 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$14,006 (-55%) realized +$100 · open −$14,343
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate71%20W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$632per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$3,771now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$12
14 days+$108
30 days+$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 93% −$14,268
crypto 7% +$27
other 0% −$2
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+39.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 28 +54.6% +39.8% 71% 21% -6.9%
≤90d 28 +54.6% +39.8% 71% 21% -6.9%
all 28 +54.6% +39.8% 71% 21% -6.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +39.8% 21% -6.9%
10% ← realistic here +26.5% 11% -15.8%
15% +14.2% 11% -24.0%
20% +3.0% 11% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +148% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
11.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$30 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$3,771
Realized+$100
Unrealized−$14,343
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses20 / 8
Open positions12
Markets (closed)28 / 40
History coverage16d
Avg bet$632
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 8¢ $8,826 $1,070 −$7,756 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 45¢ 6¢ $7,527 $911 −$6,616 (-88%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 16¢ 18¢ $728 $785 +$57 (+8%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 3¢ 4¢ $202 $290 +$88 (+43%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $200 $252 +$52 (+26%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? No 5¢ 4¢ $308 $234 −$74 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 8¢ 4¢ $205 $115 −$90 (-44%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 41¢ 12¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 78¢ 24¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-70%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? No 0¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $62 $0 −$62 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $80 $0 −$80 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $30 −$12 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 05 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 01 $33 −$33 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 01 $1,687 +$147 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $272 +$10 +4%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 31 $52 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET May 31 $173 +$12 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 31 $84 −$80 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 31 $237 +$21 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 31 $66 −$62 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 31 $221 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 30 $47 −$45 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 30 $49 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 30 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $60 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 30 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 30 $64 +$36 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 30 $72 +$66 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 30 $42 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 30 $83 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 30 $120 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $83 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $9 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 29 $10 +$12 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 29 $9 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $3 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $14 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $2 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5 49m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY No 5¢ $10 50m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $20 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $5 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 7¢ $10 51m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $30 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $10 52m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 53m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $50 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $5 54m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $11 55m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 58m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 16¢ $10 58m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,770.94 · official $3,836.71 · 510 history records