Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9aa…aae6 world 116 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate41%47W / 68L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$85
other 30% +$11
sports 23% +$1
politics 9% +$1
finance 1% −$7
crypto 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.1% -7.6% 29% 14% -9.5%
≤30d 28 -3.1% -12.3% 32% 4% -9.5%
≤90d 44 -6.4% -15.3% 39% 2% -10.4%
all 115 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 2% -10.3%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.8%
15% -27.4% 1% -26.7%
20% -34.5% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses47 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)115 / 116
History coverage466d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 46¢ 54¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+16%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $85 $0 +0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 22 $76 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $76 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $77 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $933 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $7 +$1 +18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $153 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $84 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $84 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $78 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $86 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $77 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $65 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $77 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $61 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $307 +$1 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $76 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $99 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $86 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $186 +$1 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $24 −$7 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $76 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $84 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $78 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $99 −$17 -17%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $109 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $169 −$61 -36%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $34 −$4 -12%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $10 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $11 −$4 -35%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $287 +$2 +1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $919 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $948 −$2 -0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $126 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $707 −$2 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $940 +$3 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 18 $997 +$9 +1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 02 $7 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 52¢ $85 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 52¢ $85 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $76 23h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $76 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $68 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $4 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $72 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $73 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $4 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $77 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $77 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 46¢ $77 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $7 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $48 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 85¢ $56 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $35 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 41¢ $42 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $66 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $10 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 47¢ $84 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $84 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.48 · official $0.00 (match) · 358 history records