Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C9 0xc9ad…79d0 other 330 markets active 9h ago coverage 220d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,773 (+9%) realized +$25,103 · open +$1,670
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%231W / 66L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$856per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$22,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$16
14 days+$531
30 days+$1,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$4,963
politics 28% +$4,727
world 22% +$5,027
economics 5% +$365
culture 5% +$467
crypto 2% +$1,061
sports 1% +$945
tech 0% +$120
finance 0% +$127
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -11.1% -19.5% 83% 33% -8.1%
≤30d 50 -14.6% -22.8% 66% 30% -4.9%
≤90d 76 -1.4% -10.8% 76% 33% -2.5%
all 297 +13.4% +2.6% 78% 36% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.6% 36% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -7.2% 22% -12.9%
15% -16.2% 17% -21.3%
20% -24.4% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$869) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$123 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.99 per $1 lost it wins $2.99
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

220d coverage
Net worth$22,207
Realized+$25,103
Unrealized+$1,670
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses231 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)297 / 330
History coverage220d ⚠
Avg bet$856
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 297 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $2,635 $2,965 +$331 (+13%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $2,483 $2,896 +$413 (+17%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,452 $2,494 +$41 (+2%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,915 $1,989 +$74 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 86¢ $1,555 $1,816 +$262 (+17%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $1,244 $1,510 +$266 (+21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $837 $918 +$82 (+10%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $747 $762 +$15 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 78¢ 84¢ $694 $745 +$51 (+7%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 88¢ $609 $612 +$4 (+1%)
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $546 $583 +$37 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 100¢ $486 $550 +$63 (+13%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 100¢ $460 $499 +$38 (+8%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $487 $494 +$8 (+2%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $460 $492 +$32 (+7%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 15¢ $570 $452 −$118 (-21%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 72¢ $392 $435 +$43 (+11%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $418 $419 +$0 (+0%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 79¢ $298 $315 +$17 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 78¢ $248 $314 +$66 (+27%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $258 $287 +$29 (+11%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 55¢ 84¢ $138 $210 +$72 (+53%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $186 $199 +$13 (+7%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $69 $71 +$2 (+3%)
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $57 $56 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $955 +$45 +5%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $706 −$676 -96%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,174 +$26 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $980 +$20 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,850 +$250 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,881 +$319 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $186 +$34 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $513 +$577 +113%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $603 +$20 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,120 −$120 -11%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $32 +$18 +59%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 10 $284 +$16 +6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $157 +$50 +32%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 08 $135 −$135 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 08 $1,538 +$299 +19%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jun 08 $65 −$55 -84%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $240 −$240 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Jun 08 $474 −$300 -63%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $473 −$473 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $953 −$259 -27%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $127 +$2 +1%
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $135 $0 +0%
Will Denmark Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $214 +$1 +1%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $221 +$3 +1%
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next G Jun 04 $320 +$58 +18%
Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $329 +$2 +0%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $335 +$8 +2%
Will Naleraq be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $357 +$4 +1%
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $513 +$9 +2%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $605 +$85 +14%
Will Citizens’ Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,004 +$31 +3%
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,119 +$35 +3%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,495 +$346 +23%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $2,449 +$100 +4%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $5,854 +$976 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $206 +$390 +189%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$53 +38%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $161 +$39 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,812 +$285 +16%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $57 −$33 -59%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $310 −$100 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $5 8h
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 11h
Trump x Greenland deal signed by December 31? SELL No 43¢ $32 11h
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $249 15h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $29 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $18 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $2 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $6 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $11 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $24 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $12 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $258 2d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $546 2d
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $955 2d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $28 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $491 2d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $108 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $49 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 5d
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 5d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 6d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 6d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 6d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 6d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22,206.83 · official $22,206.84 (match) · 3500 history records