Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9ae…b872 other 168 markets active 0h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,720 (+1%) realized +$1,720 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate23%39W / 128L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$1,638per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$264now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$23
14 days−$51
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$29
politics 41% −$144
sports 9% +$1,893
world 3% −$3
crypto 2% −$11
culture 2% −$6
economics 1% −$4
finance 1% −$34
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 41 -5.2% -14.3% 7% 2% -9.8%
≤90d 108 -12.0% -20.4% 5% 2% -9.8%
all 167 +0.9% -8.7% 23% 10% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 10% -9.0%
10% -17.5% 10% -17.7%
15% -25.4% 7% -25.6%
20% -32.7% 5% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$9 · ×7.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.38 per $1 lost it wins $2.38
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$264
Realized+$1,720
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses39 / 128
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)167 / 168
History coverage151d
Avg bet$1,638
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 167 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $264 $264 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $1,886 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $623 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,898 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $1,916 −$3 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,407 −$5 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $748 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $3,858 −$4 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 16 $1,331 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,163 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,884 −$4 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,460 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $2,328 −$4 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $2,777 −$4 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5,707 −$7 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 09 $4,112 −$5 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $4,286 −$5 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,480 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $4,101 −$6 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 04 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $3,054 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $3,160 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $76 −$76 -100%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? Jun 02 $549 +$2 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $662 +$1 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $1,944 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $690 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $2,163 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $3,115 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $2,389 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $4,749 −$5 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $10,021 −$10 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $7,089 −$7 -0%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $79 +$71 +90%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $960 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,016 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 21 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,596 −$3 -0%
Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $1,701 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 18m
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $502 1h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $622 20h
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $623 23h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $223 25h
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $223 27h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $236 2d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $583 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $584 4d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $747 5d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $748 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,331 5d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,332 5d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,261 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,263 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,291 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,292 6d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,329 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,331 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,161 7d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,163 7d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,374 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,376 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,457 8d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,460 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,380 8d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,382 9d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,249 10d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,251 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $264.42 · official $264.42 (match) · 592 history records