Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:29:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b0…5aa5 sports 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$4
other 8% +$18
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 50 -0.0% -9.6% 52% 4% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 4% -9.1%
10% -18.2% 4% -17.8%
15% -26.1% 4% -25.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.49 per $1 lost it wins $3.49
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage518d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Amazon reach $260 in March? Apr 02 $35 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Feb 11 $43 $0 +0%
Will Meta reach $830 in November? Dec 05 $45 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? Aug 03 $1 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? Jul 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Ethereum all time high in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 05 $1,609 −$2 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 04 $793 −$1 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on Feb 28? Mar 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 Freestyle Chess Grand Slam Weissenhau Feb 26 $40 +$15 +37%
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? Feb 26 $14 $0 -1%
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? Feb 24 $25 +$1 +4%
Pistons vs. Hawks Feb 23 $12 $0 +2%
Silva vs. Baghdasaryan Feb 22 $2 $0 +0%
Grizzlies vs. Cavaliers Feb 22 $24 $0 +0%
Thunder vs. Timberwolves Feb 22 $24 $0 +0%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Feb 20 $15 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 18 $17 $0 -1%
Suns vs. Spurs Feb 18 $4 $0 +0%
Will Real Madrid win La Liga? Feb 18 $3 $0 -2%
Grizzlies vs. Pacers Feb 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-02-26? Feb 17 $3 $0 -2%
Will FC Twente beat Bodo Glimt? Feb 13 $9 +$3 +39%
Suns vs. Rockets Feb 12 $19 $0 -0%
Bucks vs. Pelicans Feb 10 $2 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Feb 07 $7 $0 -3%
Pacers vs. Lakers Feb 07 $5 $0 -2%
Ducks vs. Kings Feb 07 $3 −$1 -36%
Will Real Madrid beat Atletico Madrid? Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-02-15? Feb 04 $3 $0 -2%
Suns vs. Trail Blazers Feb 03 $5 $0 -0%
Hawks vs. Pistons Feb 03 $28 $0 +1%
Bulls vs. Pistons Feb 02 $19 $0 +2%
Jets vs. Capitals Jan 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma beat Frankfurt? Jan 30 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-01-26? Jan 26 $16 $0 -2%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jan 24 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-25? Jan 24 $12 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Amazon reach $260 in March? BUY No 100¢ $35 89d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $43 148d
Will Meta reach $830 in November? BUY No 100¢ $45 209d
Will Solana reach $350 in October? BUY No 100¢ $45 246d
Will Bitcoin close above $100K on July 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 336d
Will XRP dip to $1.4 in June? BUY No 99¢ $1 365d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 396d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in May? BUY No 99¢ $1 396d
Ethereum all time high in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 426d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 434d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $3 459d
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? BUY No 100¢ $2 468d
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $2 468d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $818 477d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $819 477d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $789 477d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $790 477d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $792 478d
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $793 478d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $2 483d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $95000 and $97000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 483d
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 483d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on Feb 28? BUY No 100¢ $2 483d
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? SELL No 81¢ $12 484d
Will Tottenham Hotspur win the UEFA Europa League? BUY No 82¢ $0 486d
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 486d
Will Ferrari record the fastest lap at 2025 F1 Winter Testing? SELL Yes 43¢ $19 486d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.47 · official $44.47 (match) · 129 history records