Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:10:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9b2…fe55 other 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate11%12W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$224per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$3
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$27
politics 26% −$7
sports 6% +$17
economics 5% −$1
world 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +4.0% -5.9% 14% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 17 +1.6% -8.1% 12% 6% -9.5%
≤90d 102 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 9% -9.5%
all 107 +0.9% -8.7% 11% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.5% 9% -18.1%
15% -25.4% 7% -26.0%
20% -32.8% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×11.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses12 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage97d
Avg bet$224
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $143 $143 +$0 (+0%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $273 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 19 $239 $0 -0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $16 +$4 +29%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $248 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $716 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $34 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $31 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $313 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $28 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $267 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $36 $0 -0%
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $457 $0 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of May 31 $35 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 24 $262 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $38 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 17 $434 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $401 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $228 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $393 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $225 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 10 $229 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $215 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 07 $222 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $433 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $217 $0 -0%
Will Alejandro Davidovich Fokina win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $222 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 28 $429 $0 -0%
Will Christopher Waller be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $213 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $435 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $237 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 17 $223 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 16 $232 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $238 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $405 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $229 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 14 $231 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 14 $239 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $458 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 13 $241 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $34 30m
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $34 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $39 21h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $39 25h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $63 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 100¢ $32 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $16 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 5d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $34 6d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $34 6d
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $143 8d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $31 10d
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $31 10d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $97 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $48 12d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 12d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $48 13d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $48 14d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $28 14d
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $28 14d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $41 18d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 18d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 19d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 20d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $44 20d
Will Israel Katz be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $44 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.41 · official $205.41 (match) · 328 history records