Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:55:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b5…f1e3 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate38%11W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$4
politics 39% −$4
other 11% −$11
finance 8% −$3
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +4.2% -5.7% 56% 11% -7.6%
≤30d 15 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 7% -8.8%
≤90d 25 -0.9% -10.3% 36% 4% -9.7%
all 29 -7.6% -16.4% 38% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 3% -10.3%
10% -24.4% 3% -18.9%
15% -31.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -38.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses11 / 18
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 32
History coverage528d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 51¢ 50¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-3%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 95¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $21 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $36 $0 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $35 +$1 +4%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $6 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $72 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $9 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $69 $0 -0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $8 −$1 -9%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $25 −$7 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $160 +$3 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $181 −$3 -2%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 03 $227 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $250 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Mar 31 $227 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 3 countries in 2026? Mar 31 $30 +$2 +7%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 30 $16 −$4 -23%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lazio win the Serie A? Apr 29 $0 $0 -100%
Will Tottenham beat Liverpool? Jan 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 51¢ $37 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $21 4h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $21 7h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 90¢ $36 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 89¢ $36 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $3 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $33 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $3 35h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 49¢ $32 35h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 41h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $5 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $36 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $39 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 26¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $7 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $22 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $7 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $9 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $9 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $33 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.07 · official $35.64 · 98 history records