Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:14:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b6…f373 sports 77 markets active 10h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate55%42W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$28
7 days−$21
14 days−$14
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$4
crypto 20% +$2
other 13% −$14
world 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 77 -4.9% -14.0% 55% 47% -13.0%
≤90d 77 -4.9% -14.0% 55% 47% -13.0%
all 77 -4.9% -14.0% 55% 47% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 47% -13.0%
10% -22.2% 36% -21.3%
15% -29.7% 32% -28.9%
20% -36.6% 27% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses42 / 35
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage15d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $3 −$2 -76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -95%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $6 +$5 +86%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 −$3 -77%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -99%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -93%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +61%
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt Jun 17 $6 +$7 +109%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -46%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $3 +$4 +116%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 −$2 -60%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$5 +165%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $9 +$7 +74%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $3 −$2 -72%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -84%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $3 $0 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $9 −$1 -15%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 14 $5 −$2 -33%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $4 +$4 +101%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $5 +$8 +165%
Ilkley: Mary Stoiana vs Celine Naef Jun 13 $4 +$3 +82%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 +$7 +325%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $3 +$1 +44%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$2 +52%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1 +$1 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $2 $0 +22%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $3 +$2 +54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Haiti $1 10h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL No $0 14h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 76¢ $11 14h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $3 16h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Haiti 27¢ $3 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 13¢ $1 32h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 40¢ $3 38h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 53¢ $5 39h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 54¢ $5 39h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $9 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes $0 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $5 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 92¢ $7 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 37¢ $1 2d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 48¢ $5 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt SELL Nick Hardt 100¢ $13 2d
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $6 2d
Asuncion 2: Thiago Seyboth Wild vs Nick Hardt BUY Nick Hardt 47¢ $6 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 SELL Over 58¢ $1 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 44¢ $3 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 17¢ $1 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $2 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 66¢ $2 4d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 49¢ $3 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $3 4d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 174 history records