Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc9b7…f2b0 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,326 (+40%) realized +$1,248 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%1W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$659per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 130d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% +$1,319
politics 14% +$70
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +128.6% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤30d 1 +128.6% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
≤90d 1 +128.6% +106.9% 100% 100% +106.9%
all 2 +14.3% +3.4% 50% 50% +105.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 50% +105.9%
10% -6.5% 50% +86.2%
15% -15.5% 50% +68.2%
20% -23.8% 50% +51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +129% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +128% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,305 vs −$5 · ×261.07 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×261.07 per $1 lost it wins $261.07
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$2,313
Realized+$1,248
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses1 / 1
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions3
Markets (closed)2 / 5
History coverage130d
Avg bet$659
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 46¢ $1,674 $1,693 +$19 (+1%)
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes 39¢ 44¢ $464 $534 +$70 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $97 $87 −$10 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,015 +$1,305 +129%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,313.30 · official $2,313.30 (match) · 20 history records