Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc9b7…975a crypto 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$54 (-12%) realized −$53 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%7W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22
14 days−$62
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$37
crypto 37% −$49
sports 9% −$12
weather 4% −$20
world 4% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-32.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -46.2% -51.3% 29% 29% -21.3%
≤30d 18 -25.2% -32.4% 39% 39% -22.8%
≤90d 18 -25.2% -32.4% 39% 39% -22.8%
all 18 -25.2% -32.4% 39% 39% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.4% 39% -22.8%
10% -38.8% 33% -30.2%
15% -44.7% 22% -36.9%
20% -50.2% 17% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$53
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses7 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage14d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $37 $36 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $35 +$16 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$2 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $56 +$32 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$3 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $36 +$25 +69%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$32 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$8 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +12%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +23%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$3 +27%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla SELL Paper Rex 10¢ $3 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $20 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $35 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 5d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 21? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $87 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $56 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $23 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $25 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $26 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 95¢ $7 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $10 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $6 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.64 · official $35.64 (match) · 40 history records