Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:00:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b9…9448 crypto 151 markets active 0h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$44 (+0%) realized +$58 · open −$14
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate46%69W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,092
7 days−$1,092
14 days−$1,092
30 days−$1,092
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 23% -58.6%
≤30d 22 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 23% -58.6%
≤90d 22 -13.9% -22.1% 32% 23% -58.6%
all 150 -4.8% -13.9% 46% 44% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 44% -9.7%
10% -22.1% 43% -18.3%
15% -29.6% 38% -26.2%
20% -36.5% 35% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$58 vs −$49 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$58
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses69 / 81
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage108d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Up 35¢ 16¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $68 +$90 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$41 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$30 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $78 +$8 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 19 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$21 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $250 −$40 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 19 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 19 $130 −$125 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 19 $220 −$128 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 19 $746 −$746 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Mar 12 $100 +$93 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 12 $373 −$67 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 12 $200 +$106 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Mar 12 $200 −$83 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 12 $200 −$39 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 11 $1,194 +$391 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 11 $335 +$318 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 11 $179 +$156 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Mar 11 $122 +$102 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 11 $40 +$12 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Mar 11 $50 +$47 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Mar 11 $75 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Mar 11 $25 +$23 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Mar 11 $40 +$36 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Mar 11 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 11 $37 −$10 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 11 $30 +$9 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Mar 11 $45 +$31 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 11 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 11 $15 +$15 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Mar 11 $25 −$11 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 11 $30 +$15 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 11 $530 −$60 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 11 $494 −$494 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 04 $122 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Mar 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $26 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $40 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $16 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $58 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $52 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $93 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $82 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $32 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.07 · official $16.07 · 467 history records