Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T13:42:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc9be…0756 crypto 1498 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (247 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL −$723 (-17%) realized −$723 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +136% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +82% what you keep after slip
Net edge+82%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate13%74W / 511L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day247.3pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$490
7 days+$171
14 days+$670
30 days+$670
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$5
crypto 35% +$1,174
world 17% −$7
tech 5% −$2
politics 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (247 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)+113.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 523 +68.0% +52.0% 9% 8% -3.3%
≤30d 585 +136.0% +113.5% 13% 12% +13.9%
≤90d 585 +136.0% +113.5% 13% 12% +13.9%
all 585 +136.0% +113.5% 13% 12% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover247.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +113.5% 12% +13.9%
10% ← realistic here +93.1% 12% +3.0%
15% +74.5% 12% -6.9%
20% +57.4% 12% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +136% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +373% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$1 · ×14.13 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses74 / 511
Open positions5
Markets (closed)585 / 1498
History coverage14d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day247.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 585 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? No 77¢ 79¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 72¢ 79¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? No 44¢ 46¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 71¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28? No 26¢ 30¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 495 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 5, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 31, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 1, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 7, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 20, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 12, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 26, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 3, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 28, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 21, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - April 16, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $117 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $130 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 66¢ $15 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $26 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 1h
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-Ju BUY No 26¢ $0 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $7 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 72¢ $144 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $3 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 74¢ $44 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 74¢ $54 1h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 71¢ $142 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 77¢ $8 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 77¢ $15 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 77¢ $23 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 44¢ $18 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on SELL No 77¢ $152 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 44¢ $18 1h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on BUY No 77¢ $154 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $56 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $113 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $171 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 73¢ $25 2h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 72¢ $25 2h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? SELL No 77¢ $19 2h
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting? BUY No 77¢ $23 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $86 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $86 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.89 · official $3.39 · 3500 history records