Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:54:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9c0…8d4c sports 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$27,045 (-21%) realized −$27,045 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate58%23W / 17L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,221per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1,073est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$279
7 days+$279
14 days+$279
30 days−$29,796
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$31,260
other 11% +$3,732
crypto 4% +$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-22.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +8.2% -2.1% 50% 50% -2.5%
≤30d 23 -28.5% -35.3% 43% 35% -44.8%
≤90d 26 -23.2% -30.5% 46% 38% -36.9%
all 40 -14.6% -22.8% 58% 45% -28.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.8% 45% -28.7%
10% ← realistic here -30.2% 35% -35.6%
15% -36.9% 28% -41.8%
20% -43.1% 15% -47.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$3,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,165 vs −$3,185 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$27,045
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses23 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$1,073
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage153d
Avg bet$3,221
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $567 +$433 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $935 −$50 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $457 −$450 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $7,107 −$7,100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2,907 +$1,271 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,027 −$1,018 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $383 +$15 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $505 −$402 -80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $507 +$183 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1,012 +$218 +22%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $1,534 −$1,528 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Jil Teichmann vs Magdalena Frech May 27 $1,310 +$212 +16%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $1,253 +$60 +5%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $2,014 −$765 -38%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 26 $1,690 −$1,690 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 2 Winner May 26 $3,200 −$1,765 -55%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 26 $21,639 −$20,269 -94%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 22 $5,016 −$5,016 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $1,797 −$1,797 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $17,411 +$7,564 +43%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner May 21 $2,040 +$2,202 +108%
LoL: TLN Pirates vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - LFL Playoffs May 21 $6,341 +$5,159 +81%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 20 $4,951 −$4,900 -99%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 14 $3,000 +$2,156 +72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on February 19? Feb 19 $2,966 +$131 +4%
T20 World Cup: Afghanistan vs UAE (Game 1) Feb 19 $2,392 −$1,280 -54%
LoL: DN Freecs vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 19 $2,607 +$359 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on February 1 Feb 18 $2,568 +$39 +2%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $776 +$293 +38%
LoL: Team Heretics vs G2 Esports - Game 2 Winner Feb 17 $2,232 +$43 +2%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 17 $1,104 +$629 +57%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 16 $1,220 +$384 +31%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Fnatic - Game 1 Winner Feb 16 $1,069 +$151 +14%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $653 −$585 -90%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Feb 16 $2,240 +$785 +35%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Feb 16 $1,989 +$751 +38%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) Jan 18 $4,661 −$4,661 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $11,663 +$2,984 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $885 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $567 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,234 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $935 19h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 87¢ $865 21h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Team Nemesis 85¢ $5 21h
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 45¢ $457 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $1,650 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $4,622 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $5 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $4 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $5 17d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $821 17d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 100¢ $4,179 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 68¢ $404 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 69¢ $1,514 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 69¢ $990 18d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner BUY Anyones Legend 71¢ $1,027 18d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Top Esports 99¢ $398 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL JD Gaming 12¢ $17 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 95¢ $383 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL JD Gaming 13¢ $20 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL JD Gaming 13¢ $16 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL JD Gaming 15¢ $45 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner SELL JD Gaming 23¢ $6 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 66¢ $505 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 70¢ $690 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 50¢ $507 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL JD Gaming 76¢ $20 19d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner SELL JD Gaming 75¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 213 history records