Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:23:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc9c1…4ebb sports 407 markets active 1h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$829 (-2%) realized −$767 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate84%331W / 62L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Fees−$79est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,900now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$330
7 days−$453
14 days−$412
30 days−$412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$733
sports 27% +$50
economics 11% −$62
finance 10% −$984
crypto 7% −$29
world 6% −$70
weather 1% −$165
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 353 +3.1% -6.7% 86% 25% -10.7%
≤30d 358 +3.6% -6.3% 86% 25% -10.6%
≤90d 393 +1.4% -8.3% 84% 26% -10.7%
all 393 +1.4% -8.3% 84% 26% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 26% -10.7%
10% -17.1% 15% -19.2%
15% -25.1% 9% -27.0%
20% -32.4% 5% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$41 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$1,900
Realized−$767
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses331 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$79
Open positions2
Markets (closed)393 / 407
History coverage79d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 36¢ 34¢ $1,961 $1,899 −$62 (-3%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election? Yes 64¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $37 +$8 +22%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $513 +$123 +24%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $9 +$1 +7%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $270 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $38 +$2 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $112 +$6 +5%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $18 +$2 +12%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $37 +$3 +8%
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $82 −$56 -69%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $9 +$1 +15%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $117 +$3 +3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $86 +$1 +1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $25 +$15 +58%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $43 +$3 +6%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $291 +$4 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $339 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $19 +$1 +6%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 $0 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $5 +$4 +86%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $138 +$1 +0%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $9 +$1 +9%
Brazil vs. Haiti: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $28 +$2 +8%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $265 +$5 +2%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $60 $0 +0%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$21 +206%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,431 +$61 +4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $26 +$3 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 +$17 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: United States (-3.5) Jun 19 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +21%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 19 $5 +$1 +17%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $5 $0 +1%
Türkiye leading at halftime? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2 $0 +21%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Otto Virtanen Jun 19 $1 $0 +29%
Brescia: Elizara Yaneva vs Ekaterine Gorgodze Jun 19 $1 $0 +21%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $184 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 18? Jun 19 $45 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $270 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 91¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 93¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 80¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 85¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 86¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 81¢ $0 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 81¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 77¢ $4 1h
Spread: Paraguay (-2.5) BUY Türkiye 99¢ $5 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 24¢ $26 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $10 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $9 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 89¢ $18 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 92¢ $92 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $7 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $7 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 97¢ $52 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $27 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 93¢ $19 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $84 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 77¢ $77 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 61¢ $61 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,899.85 · official $1,900.40 (match) · 1424 history records