Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9c5…508d crypto 135 markets active 19h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,961 (-7%) realized −$1,961 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate79%106W / 29L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$195per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$114
7 days−$202
14 days−$702
30 days−$2,215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$1,981
world 6% +$213
sports 5% −$227
other 0% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -15.8% -23.8% 72% 24% -18.4%
≤30d 134 -10.6% -19.1% 78% 25% -17.2%
≤90d 135 -10.4% -18.9% 79% 25% -16.4%
all 135 -10.4% -18.9% 79% 25% -16.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 25% -16.4%
10% -26.7% 10% -24.4%
15% -33.8% 2% -31.7%
20% -40.3% 1% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
66% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$128 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,961
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses106 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)135 / 135
History coverage58d
Avg bet$195
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 135 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $154 +$12 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $203 −$81 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $201 +$20 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 13 $16 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 12 $44 −$43 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 12 $39 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 12 $167 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $19 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 11 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 08 $110 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$21 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 07 $202 −$200 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 07 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 07 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 07 $202 +$24 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 07 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 07 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 07 $402 +$43 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $203 +$42 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 07 $211 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 07 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 07 $102 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 07 $201 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 06 $100 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 06 $101 +$19 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $53 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $101 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $101 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $35 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $44 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $20 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $66 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $19 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 317 history records