Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:49:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9d3…7391 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (149 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$91 (+9%) realized +$90 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day149.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$170
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (149 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 32% -25.7%
≤30d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 32% -25.7%
≤90d 34 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 32% -25.7%
all 34 -8.4% -17.1% 38% 32% -25.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover149.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 32% -25.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.0% 32% -32.8%
15% -32.3% 32% -39.3%
20% -38.9% 26% -45.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -36% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day149.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 31¢ 34¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 28 $16 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$24 +154%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$14 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$44 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$15 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $52 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$59 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $37 +$139 +378%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $48 −$13 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $24 −$23 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 28 $10 +$14 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 28 $23 −$22 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $58 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $48 −$45 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 28 $37 +$73 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $63 −$50 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 28 $38 −$6 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $16 +$35 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 28 $26 +$26 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $16 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $4 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $11 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $40 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $24 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $10 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $40 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.13 · official $12.42 · 161 history records