Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9d3…464c sports 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$47 (-3%) realized −$40 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate50%29W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days−$21
14 days−$27
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$56
sports 32% −$120
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -23.1% -30.4% 51% 41% -11.2%
≤30d 57 -20.9% -28.4% 51% 42% -11.1%
≤90d 58 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 41% -13.8%
all 58 -21.2% -28.7% 50% 41% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.7% 41% -13.8%
10% -35.5% 28% -22.1%
15% -41.8% 19% -29.6%
20% -47.5% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$40
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses29 / 29
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)58 / 64
History coverage33d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 58 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$28 +94%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $16 +$5 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$12 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $60 +$6 +10%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$5 +50%
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$9 -88%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $53 +$31 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $59 +$29 +50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$3 -28%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 +$4 +11%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$21 -83%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$18 -91%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 −$1 -5%
Raphinha: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals Jun 20 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $85 +$10 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 +$41 +73%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $10 +$3 +29%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$2 +11%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$8 +76%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$3 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -95%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $9 +$5 +54%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -42%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 +$1 +5%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 16 $10 +$1 +13%
Michael Olise: 1+ shots Jun 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $45 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 9h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $16 11h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $20 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $93 11h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 86¢ $80 11h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over $1 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 19h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 66¢ $10 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 67¢ $64 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 21h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 39h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 39h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $10 40h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 57¢ $10 41h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $3 41h
Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists BUY Yes 21¢ $3 41h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 56¢ $10 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $95 43h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $35 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $8 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners SELL Over 58¢ $7 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.23 · official $123.24 (match) · 137 history records