Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9d6…e102 other 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$692 (-4%) realized −$689 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate91%43W / 4L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$336now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$5
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$62
crypto 29% +$6
tech 9% +$18
sports 8% −$671
politics 6% −$123
world 6% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 14 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 40 -3.2% -12.5% 90% 0% -15.1%
all 47 -2.6% -11.9% 91% 0% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -13.7%
10% -20.3% 0% -21.9%
15% -28.0% 0% -29.5%
20% -35.1% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$200 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$336
Realized−$689
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses43 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)47 / 50
History coverage130d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? No 100¢ 100¢ $126 $126 −$0 (-0%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 94¢ $115 $113 −$2 (-2%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $98 $98 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 Jun 17 $219 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? Jun 15 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 15? Jun 15 $55 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 12 $102 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? Jun 12 $106 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 7? Jun 07 $179 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $140 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $190 $0 +0%
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? Jun 01 $93 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? Jun 01 $239 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $356 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $356 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $150? May 22 $355 +$1 +0%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17? May 18 $350 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, May 17 $351 +$2 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of May 11 2026? May 16 $99 +$1 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $75 $0 +1%
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 03 $792 −$672 -85%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 01 $806 +$11 +1%
Will XRP reach $1.65 on April 19? Apr 20 $158 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 13-19? Apr 20 $326 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Apr 19 $56 +$6 +10%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 14 to Apr Apr 19 $96 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 18 $65 −$9 -14%
Will Donald Trump post 160-179 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 18 $69 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 17 $193 −$118 -61%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on April 17? Apr 16 $930 −$1 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.70 April 6-12? Apr 13 $180 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.90 April 6-12? Apr 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 6-12? Apr 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 April 6-12? Apr 13 $250 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $909 +$19 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 05 $900 +$4 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in March? Apr 04 $88 +$2 +2%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Apr 04 $356 +$3 +1%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 04 $439 +$9 +2%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Mar 26 $869 +$10 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 05 $852 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 3? Mar 04 $278 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 04 $564 +$16 +3%
Will Solana dip to $20 in February? Mar 01 $298 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of February 9 above $140? Feb 14 $527 +$5 +1%
Will Solana reach $130 February 2-8? Feb 09 $343 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 February 2-8? Feb 09 $500 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will RadarScope be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $126 46m
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $98 47m
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 16 to June 23 BUY No 100¢ $219 26h
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $150 3d
Will the price of Solana be above $20 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 3d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 8 above $8.00? BUY No 100¢ $106 8d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $102 8d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $115 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? BUY No 100¢ $100 9d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $179 12d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $190 14d
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $140 14d
Will Ethena reach $0.24 in May? BUY No 100¢ $93 22d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $239 22d
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $356 23d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $326 24d
Will Zelenskyy post 40-59 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 24d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of May 18 above $150? BUY No 100¢ $355 29d
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 17? BUY No 100¢ $350 31d
Will Donald Trump post 60-79 Truth Social posts from May 12 to May 19, BUY No 100¢ $351 31d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.10 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 37d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.30 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 37d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.20 Week of May 11 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 37d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 75¢ $75 41d
LoL: Dplus KIA vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 74¢ $75 41d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 SELL KT Rolster 60¢ $120 45d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 88¢ $628 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 88¢ $73 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 88¢ $18 46d
LoL: KT Rolster vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 88¢ $15 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $336.38 · official $336.26 (match) · 166 history records