Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:43:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9d7…0fa4 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 474d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$5
other 25% $0
politics 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.8% -10.2% 17% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 14 -0.8% -10.2% 29% 0% -10.1%
all 32 -4.6% -13.7% 41% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 0% -10.1%
10% -21.9% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.38 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

474d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage474d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 46¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $76 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $39 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $120 −$3 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $12 $0 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 29 $40 $0 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $82 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 11 $1 $0 +4%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 27 $10 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30? Jun 09 $5 $0 -0%
Will valid votes be between 30 million and 32 million in South Korean Jun 09 $2 $0 +1%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Indianapolis Colts? Jun 09 $0 $0 -100%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 11 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Tennessee Titans? Apr 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 10% or more? Apr 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the LA Clippers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $25 $0 -0%
500+ Measles cases in U.S. before April? Mar 28 $15 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Mar 28 $15 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? Mar 26 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 19 $4 −$2 -41%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 12 $1 $0 -13%
Will Elon tweet 650-699 times Feb 28 - March 7? Mar 11 $16 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $39 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $39 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $19 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $1 13h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 49¢ $19 13h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $36 18h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $36 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $39 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $5 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $37 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $19 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $17 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $1 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 6d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $40 15d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $21 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $15 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $38 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $22 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $39 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $6 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $23 18d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.00 (match) · 93 history records