Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:06:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc9db…c30c crypto 347 markets active 0h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$150 (-6%) realized −$111 · open −$39
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate63%219W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day28.1pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$186
other 6% −$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 +4.6% -5.4% 68% 54% -11.2%
≤30d 346 -3.1% -12.4% 63% 49% -15.4%
≤90d 346 -3.1% -12.4% 63% 49% -15.4%
all 346 -3.1% -12.4% 63% 49% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 49% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 39% -23.5%
15% -28.4% 27% -30.9%
20% -35.4% 16% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized−$111
Unrealized−$39
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses219 / 127
Open positions1
Markets (closed)346 / 347
History coverage29d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day28.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Yes 36¢ 8¢ $50 $11 −$39 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 43 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $35 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$2 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $8 +$4 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $16 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 14 $34 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $35 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $24 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 60¢ $2 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET SELL Up 38¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.21 · official $14.54 · 990 history records