Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc9db…6789 sports 1052 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 41d only
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$17,680 (+25%) realized +$17,476 · open +$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate54%519W / 450L
Whale WR69%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day62.5pace
Fees−$630est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,757now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,191
7 days+$6,612
14 days+$10,449
30 days+$12,271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$7,379
crypto 22% +$285
other 17% +$6,756
politics 5% +$746
weather 2% −$78
world 1% +$127
culture 0% +$79
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 127 +43.8% +30.1% 53% 51% +33.5%
≤30d 517 +56.3% +41.4% 57% 55% +15.1%
≤90d 969 +32.6% +20.0% 54% 52% +10.9%
all 969 +32.6% +20.0% 54% 52% +10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.0% 52% +10.9%
10% ← realistic here +8.5% 48% +0.3%
15% -2.0% 43% -9.4%
20% -11.6% 37% -18.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 69% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +54% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$39 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$2,757
Realized+$17,476
Unrealized+$204
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses519 / 450
Whale WR (big bets)69%
Est. fees paid−$630
Open positions96
Markets (closed)969 / 1052
History coverage41d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day62.5
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 96 History 969 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Blake Miguez be the Republican nominee for LA-05? No 60¢ 86¢ $185 $266 +$82 (+44%)
Will Randy Fine be the Republican nominee for FL-06? Yes 66¢ 94¢ $116 $165 +$48 (+42%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Over 70¢ 66¢ $104 $99 −$5 (-4%)
Will Silver (SI) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026? No 76¢ 90¢ $75 $89 +$14 (+18%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Over 76¢ 74¢ $89 $87 −$2 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $87 $84 −$3 (-3%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 46¢ $84 $80 −$4 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $81 $78 −$2 (-3%)
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 56¢ $70 $78 +$8 (+12%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 50¢ $76 $78 +$2 (+2%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 45¢ 46¢ $77 $78 +$1 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Over 49¢ 48¢ $79 $77 −$2 (-3%)
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win more than 99.5 games in the 2026 MLB Regular Season? O 99.5 60¢ 67¢ $64 $72 +$8 (+12%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 44¢ $67 $70 +$2 (+3%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-2%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 44¢ $72 $69 −$3 (-5%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 42¢ $68 $66 −$2 (-4%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 52¢ $65 $65 +$1 (+1%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 40¢ $67 $63 −$4 (-6%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 43¢ 46¢ $53 $56 +$3 (+6%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 40¢ $56 $51 −$4 (-8%)
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07? No 61¢ 88¢ $35 $51 +$16 (+45%)
Will Ciryl Gane be the UFC Heavyweight Champion on December 31, 2026? No 28¢ 46¢ $29 $49 +$20 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$1 -3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $54 +$20 +36%
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $6 −$1 -21%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 17 $9 +$2 +24%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 Jun 17 $7 +$4 +50%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 17 $22 −$4 -17%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) Jun 17 $203 −$26 -13%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $88 +$19 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$4 -47%
Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia? Jun 17 $5 +$2 +40%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Kyle Sweetser be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $3 −$2 -90%
Will Dakarai Larriett be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $38 −$12 -33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $564 +$714 +126%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $20 +$30 +146%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,014 −$1,008 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $6 +$7 +109%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $588 +$396 +67%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$4 -54%
Will Rob Adkerson be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $44 +$2 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $110 +$5 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $155 −$2 -2%
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Jun 17 $45 −$4 -9%
Will John Cowan be the Republican nominee for GA-11? Jun 17 $36 +$12 +32%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $496 +$312 +63%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $92 +$57 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $81 −$60 -74%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $23 −$13 -58%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $81 −$81 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,035 +$1,620 +156%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $243 +$236 +97%
Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampsh Jun 16 $11 +$3 +28%
Will Manny Rutinel be the Democratic nominee for CO-08? Jun 16 $1 +$24 +2325%
Will Rakhi Israni Singh advance from the CA-14 primary election? Jun 16 $25 +$7 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$109 +54%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $102 +$45 +44%
Will New Zealand be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 16 $13 −$2 -13%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $12 −$1 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $18 −$7 -37%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $9 +$6 +76%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $2 +$6 +338%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $42 +$7 +17%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $154 +$58 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $137 +$889 +650%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 53¢ $25 59m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $26 59m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 70¢ $106 1h
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? SELL No 4¢ $4 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $54 2h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $53 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 69¢ $6 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 80¢ $6 2h
Will Silver (SI) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026 SELL No 49¢ $2 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 51¢ $3 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $8 3h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $22 3h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) SELL Philadelphia Phillies 70¢ $177 4h
Spread: Miami Marlins (-4.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 79¢ $203 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $39 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 71¢ $68 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $35 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $4 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 53¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 50¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 51¢ $3 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,757.33 · official $2,758.86 (match) · 3500 history records