trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 61¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 | Over | 61¢ | 60¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 | Under | 55¢ | 52¢ | $5 | $5 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Golden Knights vs. Avalanche | Avalanche | 61¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev | Pablo Llamas Ruiz | 32¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Avalanche vs. Wild | Avalanche | 56¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | Thunder | 44¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Yes | 5¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev | Thiago Agustin Tirante | 42¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca | Joao Fonseca | 64¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $0 | −$30 (-100%) |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? | Yes | 55¢ | 0¢ | $16 | $0 | −$16 (-100%) |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | Avalanche | 51¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 | Under | 51¢ | 0¢ | $15 | $0 | −$15 (-100%) |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? | Yes | 57¢ | 0¢ | $7 | $0 | −$7 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 14 | $15 | +$8 | +55% |
| Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Thunder vs. Spurs | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | May 26 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Golden Knights vs. Avalanche | May 22 | $10 | −$10 | -99% |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Andrea Pellegrino vs Lloyd Harris | May 20 | $5 | +$2 | +42% |
| Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Dalibor Svrcina vs Federico Agustin | May 20 | $5 | +$1 | +29% |
| Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 221.5 | May 18 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-17? | May 17 | $7 | −$7 | -99% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev | May 12 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Timberwolves vs. Spurs | May 12 | $10 | −$1 | -12% |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? | May 11 | $16 | −$16 | -99% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Daniil Medvedev | May 11 | $15 | −$15 | -98% |
| Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-10? | May 10 | $34 | +$37 | +109% |
| Hurricanes vs. Flyers | May 10 | $5 | +$3 | +54% |
| Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-05-09? | May 09 | $15 | +$16 | +105% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Hamad Medjedovic vs Joao Fonseca | May 09 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Avalanche vs. Wild | May 08 | $15 | −$15 | -99% |
| Hurricanes vs. Flyers | May 08 | $5 | +$3 | +62% |
| Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 | May 08 | $5 | +$5 | +97% |
| Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrea Pellegrino vs Luca Nardi | May 08 | $20 | +$14 | +67% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Mar 10 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | -22.7% | -30.1% | 50% | 50% | -15.7% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -52.8% | -57.3% | 33% | 33% | -56.6% |
| ≤90d | 21 | -23.4% | -30.7% | 43% | 43% | -28.6% |
| all | 22 | -26.9% | -33.9% | 41% | 41% | -29.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -33.9% | 41% | -29.9% |
| 10% | -40.2% | 41% | -36.6% |
| 15% | -46.0% | 36% | -42.8% |
| 20% | -51.3% | 32% | -48.4% |