Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:45:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc9e3…93f2 sports 248 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d only
✗ bot/MM pace (117 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$48,577 (-88%) realized −$44,924 · open −$3,653
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate55%104W / 86L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day116.8pace
Fees−$440est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$94,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,940
7 days−$2,879
14 days−$3,020
30 days−$7,976
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$3,622
sports 31% −$7,872
economics 1% −$141
world 1% +$1
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (117 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +10.4% -0.1% 42% 27% -24.2%
≤30d 190 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 35% -25.3%
≤90d 190 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 35% -25.3%
all 190 +8.3% -2.0% 55% 35% -25.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover116.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.0% 35% -25.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.4% 26% -32.4%
15% -20.0% 21% -38.9%
20% -27.8% 15% -44.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +7% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
7.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$153 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$94,017
Realized−$44,924
Unrealized−$3,653
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses104 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$440
Open positions70
Markets (closed)190 / 248
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$222
Trades / day116.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 190 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 96¢ $27,002 $26,652 −$350 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $22,652 $23,306 +$654 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $17,098 $17,571 +$472 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 82¢ $13,328 $12,253 −$1,075 (-8%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 89¢ $3,065 $2,996 −$69 (-2%)
Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? No 78¢ 68¢ $2,641 $2,294 −$347 (-13%)
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 60¢ 58¢ $2,231 $2,168 −$63 (-3%)
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? No 89¢ 90¢ $927 $937 +$10 (+1%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? No 93¢ 79¢ $658 $556 −$102 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $644 $492 −$152 (-24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 90¢ 90¢ $379 $378 −$1 (-0%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $354 $352 −$2 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $334 $341 +$6 (+2%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $301 $295 −$6 (-2%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 67¢ 66¢ $254 $252 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 72¢ 72¢ $242 $240 −$2 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $238 $236 −$2 (-1%)
Will T1 win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 21¢ 32¢ $136 $209 +$74 (+54%)
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Yes 47¢ 32¢ $306 $204 −$101 (-33%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 97¢ 96¢ $193 $192 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $133 $134 +$1 (+1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 67¢ 68¢ $106 $108 +$3 (+3%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 37¢ 36¢ $86 $83 −$3 (-4%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $69 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after December 2025 meetin Jun 17 $0 +$10 +10597%
Will Gold close between $4200 and $4300 at the end of 2025? Jun 17 $0 −$3 -2902%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $712 −$316 -44%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $248 −$179 -72%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $285 +$9 +3%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $273 −$98 -36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $128 −$76 -60%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $191 +$4 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $117 −$94 -81%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $314 −$22 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $159 −$10 -6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $153 +$98 +64%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $448 −$49 -11%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $418 −$169 -40%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $181 −$159 -88%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $383 +$16 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $466 −$72 -16%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $456 −$15 -3%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 17 $728 −$128 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $354 +$75 +21%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $615 −$540 -88%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $354 +$35 +10%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 +$19 +31%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 +$21 +262%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $286 −$286 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $5 +$10 +197%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $9 +$6 +58%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$8 +86%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $199 −$65 -32%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2,493 +$8 +0%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $32 +$57 +176%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $510 −$377 -74%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $255 −$45 -18%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,383 −$104 -8%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $83 +$38 +46%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $39 +$7 +18%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $8 +$3 +42%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $186 −$184 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $70 −$64 -91%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $74 −$2 -2%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $30 −$30 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $43 −$5 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $132 17m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $10 52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $12 53m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $5 1h
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 69¢ $56 1h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $6 2h
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL No 98¢ $4 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $10 2h
Will Dplus win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 95¢ $12 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 2h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 93¢ $2 2h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 99¢ $56 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $6 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $1 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 52¢ $262 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 17¢ $30 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $83 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 3h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 20¢ $2 3h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 25¢ $49 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $5 3h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $181 4h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $47 4h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $48 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 85¢ $170 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94,016.96 · official $94,016.33 (match) · 3500 history records