Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:38:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc9e7…377d sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$191 (+11%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$162per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% +$9
other 18% +$154
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +39.4% +26.1% 55% 36% +1.6%
≤30d 11 +39.4% +26.1% 55% 36% +1.6%
≤90d 11 +39.4% +26.1% 55% 36% +1.6%
all 11 +39.4% +26.1% 55% 36% +1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.1% 36% +1.6%
10% ← realistic here +14.1% 27% -8.1%
15% +3.0% 27% -17.0%
20% -7.1% 18% -25.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +39% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$45 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$162
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $328 +$154 +47%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $493 −$45 -9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $114 −$112 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 +$6 +128%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $209 +$34 +16%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $221 +$190 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $9 +$1 +8%
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $360 −$35 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? SELL No 100¢ $482 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 68¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 68¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 68¢ $211 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 68¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? BUY No 68¢ $2 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 67¢ $332 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 32¢ $114 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $446 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $46 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $11 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $1 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $0 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $7 4h
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 8¢ $8 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $209 7h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 9h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $221 9h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $10 10h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) SELL Czechia 99¢ $16 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $325 10h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $360 10h
Spread: South Africa (-1.5) BUY Czechia 95¢ $5 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 15h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $5 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records