Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9eb…5ed8 sports 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$185 (+16%) realized +$274 · open −$89
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$101
other 27% +$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -20.3% -27.8% 50% 50% -7.0%
≤30d 14 -20.3% -27.8% 50% 50% -7.0%
≤90d 14 -20.3% -27.8% 50% 50% -7.0%
all 14 -20.3% -27.8% 50% 50% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 50% -7.0%
10% -34.8% 50% -15.9%
15% -41.1% 50% -24.0%
20% -46.8% 29% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$49 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$274
Unrealized−$89
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 30¢ $100 $45 −$55 (-55%)
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) Algeria 39¢ 12¢ $50 $15 −$35 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $101 +$71 +70%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$40 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $116 +$45 +39%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $15 +$10 +65%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $15 −$15 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Algeria (-1.5) BUY Algeria 39¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 32¢ $102 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 23¢ $102 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 12h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 35h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 9¢ $10 46h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 59¢ $101 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $101 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $15 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $15 2d
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.77 · official $60.77 (match) · 26 history records