Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T03:38:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9ef…5238 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$135 (-10%) realized −$65 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$217
other 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% -20.9%
≤30d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% -20.9%
≤90d 16 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% -20.9%
all 16 +1.4% -8.2% 50% 50% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 50% -20.9%
10% -17.0% 50% -28.5%
15% -25.0% 50% -35.4%
20% -32.4% 44% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$68 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 64¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $15 −$5 -34%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $54 +$37 +69%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $200 +$104 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $56 −$55 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $49 +$37 +76%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $42 +$47 +112%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $104 +$67 +64%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $72 +$32 +45%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $81 −$81 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $68 −$68 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $90 −$45 -50%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $90 −$89 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $160 −$157 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 +$4 +216%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $90 +$66 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 64¢ $71 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score AND BUY 10¢ $5 21h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $54 24h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $304 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $200 26h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $56 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $49 33h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $88 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 46¢ $42 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $172 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $104 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $72 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 52¢ $81 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 38¢ $68 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $45 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $45 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $90 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $90 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $160 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $156 3d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $90 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.05 · official $0.05 (match) · 32 history records