Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:04:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc9f0…f1b2 sports 95 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,060 (-17%) realized −$2,054 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%42W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$1,026now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$532
7 days−$1,149
14 days−$997
30 days−$1,219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% −$2,384
sports 35% +$94
world 3% +$186
crypto 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +1.3% -8.4% 62% 62% -35.6%
≤30d 30 -19.1% -26.8% 47% 47% -31.7%
≤90d 80 -12.9% -21.2% 45% 45% -28.7%
all 88 -2.0% -11.4% 48% 48% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 48% -27.2%
10% -19.9% 42% -34.2%
15% -27.6% 40% -40.6%
20% -34.7% 30% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$113 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$1,026
Realized−$2,054
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses42 / 46
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage96d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands to win the second half? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $291 $294 +$3 (+1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Ecuador 68¢ 68¢ $206 $204 −$2 (-1%)
Germany to win the second half? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $146 $142 −$4 (-3%)
Sweden to win the second half? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $134 $131 −$3 (-2%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? No 86¢ 86¢ $132 $131 −$1 (-1%)
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 59¢ 59¢ $78 $78 +$0 (+0%)
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $32 +$15 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $28 +$16 +55%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 20 $32 +$44 +140%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 20 $67 +$10 +14%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $35 −$34 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $82 +$94 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,305 +$422 +32%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,849 −$1,831 -99%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $464 +$86 +18%
Brazil to win the second half? Jun 14 $71 +$68 +96%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $333 +$144 +43%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 12 $25 +$9 +34%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 07 $20 +$9 +44%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $93 +$13 +14%
Will Croatia vs. Slovenia end in a draw? Jun 07 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Ukraine win on 2026-05-31? Jun 05 $5 +$14 +276%
Poland vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 May 31 $1 −$1 -97%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $2 −$2 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 29 $12 −$11 -97%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. North Macedonia: O/U 4.5 May 29 $15 −$14 -97%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs GLYPH (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $290 −$286 -99%
Dota 2: Travoman Team vs Miposhka Team (BO3) - BetBoom Streamers Battl May 23 $130 +$127 +97%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 217.5 May 18 $42 −$42 -98%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $297 −$293 -99%
Will SS Lazio vs. FC Internazionale Milano end in a draw? May 13 $266 −$260 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $71 −$70 -99%
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Will PFK Krylia Sovetov Samara win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 10 $48 +$141 +291%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-07? May 09 $144 +$93 +65%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $164 −$163 -99%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $26 +$17 +65%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $317 +$462 +146%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-01? May 03 $225 +$89 +40%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FK Baltika Kaliningrad win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $63 −$62 -99%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-04-26? Apr 27 $260 +$113 +44%
Will FK Rostov win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $518 −$513 -99%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. 1. FC Köln end in a draw? Apr 17 $218 −$216 -99%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $9 +$22 +249%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-16? Apr 17 $78 +$31 +40%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. FC Porto end in a draw? Apr 17 $96 +$40 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY Yes 17¢ $21 27m
Côte d'Ivoire to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 1h
Germany to win the second half? BUY Yes 55¢ $148 1h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 68¢ $208 1h
Netherlands to win the second half? BUY Yes 46¢ $296 1h
Sweden to win the second half? BUY Yes 21¢ $137 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 86¢ $132 1h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $78 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $32 16h
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Scotland 87¢ $67 16h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 45¢ $35 16h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 41¢ $32 16h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $28 22h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 40h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $58 40h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $1,305 43h
Korea Republic leading at halftime? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $24 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $1 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,849 4d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $21 6d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $15 6d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $10 6d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $10 6d
Brazil to win the second half? BUY No 51¢ $15 6d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $464 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $33 8d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $299 8d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY G2 73¢ $4 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,025.88 · official $1,025.88 (match) · 163 history records