Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9f1…4661 other 249 markets active 2h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$69 (-0%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%7W / 242L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$18
14 days−$28
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$36
sports 22% −$19
economics 8% −$6
politics 7% −$4
crypto 6% −$6
culture 5% −$7
world 4% −$2
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 76 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 249 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses7 / 242
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)249 / 249
History coverage127d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 249 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $185 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $107 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $187 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $642 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $167 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $176 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $50 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $221 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $131 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $210 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $365 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $128 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $790 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $1,195 −$2 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 14 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $489 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $272 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $142 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $229 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $503 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $700 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 12 $166 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $190 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $319 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $413 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $353 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $859 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $270 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $242 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $178 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 09 $206 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $151 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $335 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $117 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $514 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $178 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $124 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $383 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $415 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 1h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 2h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $49 4h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $49 5h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $49 7h
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $49 9h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 14h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 16h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $49 17h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $49 19h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 20h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 21h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 23h
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 24h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 26h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $50 27h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 29h
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 31h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $7 39h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $7 41h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $50 42h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $50 43h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $50 45h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $50 47h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $50 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1316 history records