Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T15:24:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9f2…b82b other 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$163 (+16%) realized +$170 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$76per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$412now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 98% +$153
sports 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 40% +18.0%
≤30d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 40% +18.0%
≤90d 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 40% +18.0%
all 5 +2.2% -7.5% 40% 40% +18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 40% +18.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.4% 40% +6.7%
15% -24.5% 40% -3.6%
20% -31.9% 20% -13.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$19 · ×5.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.78 per $1 lost it wins $3.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$412
Realized+$170
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)5 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$76
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 35¢ $50 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 60¢ 58¢ $44 $43 −$1 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-2%)
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Yes 30¢ 29¢ $21 $21 −$1 (-3%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Yes 26¢ 23¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $23 +$23 +99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $17 −$3 -18%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $404 +$189 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 1h
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $22 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $61 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $15 1h
Luis Suárez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $51 1h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 60¢ $45 10h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 63¢ $29 10h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $31 10h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $46 10h
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $23 12h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 65¢ $23 12h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $17 12h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $17 12h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $14 12h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 13¢ $14 12h
Fares Chaïbi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $19 12h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 13h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 13h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $24 13h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $593 13h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 14h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $411.53 · official $411.56 (match) · 24 history records