Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:13:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9f4…c1e4 sports 147 markets active 5h ago coverage 33d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$98 (-10%) realized −$98 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%56W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days−$81
14 days−$136
30 days−$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$106
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -11.2% -19.6% 39% 37% -23.5%
≤30d 128 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 38% -18.4%
≤90d 147 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 36% -19.7%
all 147 -17.1% -25.0% 38% 36% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.0% 36% -19.7%
10% -32.1% 35% -27.4%
15% -38.7% 33% -34.4%
20% -44.7% 26% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses56 / 91
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)147 / 147
History coverage33d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 147 Trades
no open positions (49 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $11 +$4 +38%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $19 +$6 +29%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $24 −$13 -56%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou Jun 16 $21 $0 +2%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 $0 -4%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $12 −$1 -8%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $9 +$4 +43%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $8 +$11 +132%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast A Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: summer bear vs Hive - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Dota 2: WinteR SquadronS vs Ivory - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $13 +$7 +54%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southea Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs Mentality Monster - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $13 −$13 -99%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$6 +67%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Dota 2: D family vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Series S Jun 15 $3 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 14 $8 +$11 +140%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs Carstensz - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 13 $14 −$14 -99%
Dota 2: BALU vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $7 +$3 +41%
Dota 2: 5chudsnoanchor vs Mit Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $2 +$3 +165%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Dota 2: cyberdingzhen vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - The International Europe Open Jun 12 $1 +$12 +874%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 +$6 +39%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Dota 2: Level UP vs 4ikibamboni - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Dota 2: cincai team vs Pandawa Lima - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 10 $15 −$2 -13%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 +$9 +154%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $13 +$5 +38%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast As Jun 10 $8 +$12 +146%
Dota 2: Level UP vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $21 +$6 +26%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $12 +$10 +83%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $14 +$11 +74%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - The International Europe Op Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $9 −$9 -99%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs Zero Tenacity - Game 2 Winner Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs MODUS - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 8¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Game Master 15¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 59¢ $9 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 80¢ $4 5h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner BUY Carstensz 76¢ $15 5h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 53¢ $3 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 71¢ $11 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Spirit Academy 17¢ $2 14h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Flame Team 55¢ $9 15h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 61¢ $5 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 54¢ $3 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 63¢ $6 16h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY Flame Team 64¢ $4 16h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 33¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 12¢ $1 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY Spirit Academy 18¢ $2 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 57¢ $4 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 61¢ $3 17h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Grou BUY 4ikibamboni 63¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 35¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 52¢ $5 18h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $3 18h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY 4ikibamboni 53¢ $5 18h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 30¢ $3 23h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs WinteR SquadronS - Game 2 Winner BUY WinteR SquadronS 30¢ $5 25h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 55¢ $3 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 55¢ $1 26h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 50¢ $11 26h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY InterActive Philippines 50¢ $6 27h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 34¢ $6 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 337 history records