Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:48:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9fb…8ae3 crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$224 (-28%) realized −$224 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate20%8W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$77
14 days−$77
30 days−$77
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$382
sports 12% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-59.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -31.4%
≤30d 7 -39.7% -45.4% 29% 29% -31.4%
≤90d 17 -68.8% -71.8% 18% 12% -45.7%
all 40 -54.8% -59.1% 20% 15% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.1% 15% -48.7%
10% -63.0% 15% -53.6%
15% -66.6% 15% -58.1%
20% -69.9% 15% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -40% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -36% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$16 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses8 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage101d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 23 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $62 +$44 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $79 +$42 +52%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $15 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 27 $55 −$54 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Mar 27 $50 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Mar 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Mar 16 $53 −$52 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Mar 16 $7 +$10 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Mar 16 $15 +$62 +423%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 16 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 16 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Mar 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Mar 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Mar 14 $20 −$13 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Mar 14 $20 −$10 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Mar 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 14 $10 +$7 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $77 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 2h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 65¢ $79 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 52¢ $15 19h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $55 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $55 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $10 87d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $53 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $10 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $17 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records