Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T10:39:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9fb…3c76 crypto 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$88 (+44%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown29%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% +$8
crypto 44% −$10
politics 8% +$87
sports 2% −$3
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -14.7% -22.8% 25% 25% -18.7%
≤30d 14 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% -6.4%
≤90d 43 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 35% +27.6%
all 43 -8.7% -17.4% 37% 35% +27.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 35% +27.6%
10% -25.3% 30% +15.4%
15% -32.5% 23% +4.3%
20% -39.1% 23% -6.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +41% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$2 · ×4.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage51d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown29%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 15 $1 $0 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$4 +23%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +332%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $27 −$14 -50%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$12 +132%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $8 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? May 04 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 04 $3 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET May 04 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 04 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 04 $1 +$1 +70%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam May 04 $17 +$87 +508%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 27 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 27 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Apr 27 $12 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 27 $9 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 27 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 27 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 27 $2 +$3 +130%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 27 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$1 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 1¢ $1 6h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 7h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 93¢ $21 7h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 17h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 17h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 10¢ $13 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 28¢ $14 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $6 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 81¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 3d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 26d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 26d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 79¢ $10 28d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 61¢ $8 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 4? BUY Down 38¢ $4 41d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 105 history records