Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:58:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
C9 0xc9fd…6d85 other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$394 (+15%) realized +$394 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%9W / 12L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day55.4pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$360
sports 24% +$32
crypto 3% −$89
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-27.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 43% +0.6%
≤30d 21 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 43% +0.6%
≤90d 21 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 43% +0.6%
all 21 -19.9% -27.5% 43% 43% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.5% 43% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -34.5% 33% -9.0%
15% -40.8% 29% -17.8%
20% -46.6% 19% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$33 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$394
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses9 / 12
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage1d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day55.4
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$19 -95%
Harry Kane: 3+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $303 −$70 -23%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 +$11 +11%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$94 +47%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $102 +$129 +127%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $10 −$10 -95%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $134 −$38 -29%
Argentina to win the second half? Jun 17 $394 −$32 -8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $303 +$70 +23%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$13 -13%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $230 +$149 +64%
Exact Score: Iraq 2 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $21 −$9 -46%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $152 +$66 +43%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $151 +$27 +18%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $162 +$86 +53%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$63 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $70 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $9 53m
Harry Kane: 3+ goals BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 73¢ $203 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 72¢ $202 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 60¢ $112 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 52¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 85¢ $297 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 13¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $231 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 43¢ $102 5h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY No 0¢ $10 8h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 3¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 1¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 5¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 12¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 15¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 90¢ $12 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 8¢ $10 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 10¢ $21 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 6¢ $21 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 84¢ $73 9h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY T1 Academy 61¢ $62 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records