Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T04:51:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9ff…ee5b sports 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5 (+7%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% $0
other 23% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -7.2% -16.1% 57% 43% -8.5%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 46% -3.1%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 46% -3.1%
all 13 +0.3% -9.2% 54% 46% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 46% -3.1%
10% -17.9% 38% -12.4%
15% -25.8% 38% -20.9%
20% -33.1% 31% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $23 +$2 +9%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +68%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $5 −$4 -70%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 $0 -46%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +46%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$4 +206%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -54%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $5.00 · 25 history records