Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:00:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca02…76d3 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 189d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$613 (+11%) realized −$3,184 · open +$3,797
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +326% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +285% what you keep after slip
Net edge+285%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%2W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$935per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$8,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 189d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$7,862
politics 2% +$5
sports 1% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+285.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +440.2% +388.8% 50% 50% +872.4%
≤30d 2 +440.2% +388.8% 50% 50% +872.4%
≤90d 2 +440.2% +388.8% 50% 50% +872.4%
all 3 +325.5% +285.0% 67% 67% +790.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +285.0% 67% +790.4%
10% +248.1% 67% +705.2%
15% +214.5% 67% +627.4%
20% +183.7% 67% +556.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +975% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +326% · $-wt +884% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,059 vs −$2 · ×935.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1871.94 per $1 lost it wins $1871.94
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

189d coverage
Net worth$8,865
Realized−$3,184
Unrealized+$3,797
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses2 / 1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)3 / 6
History coverage189d
Avg bet$935
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 36¢ 72¢ $3,885 $7,692 +$3,806 (+98%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? No 32¢ 32¢ $1,085 $1,068 −$17 (-2%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 48¢ 52¢ $98 $105 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $415 +$4,072 +980%
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Toronto Marlies Jan 10 $48 +$46 +96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 32¢ $1,107 5m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $1,126 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $844 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $4,487 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $44 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 35¢ $70 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $170 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 36¢ $252 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 37¢ $448 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 38¢ $594 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $392 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $200 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $216 19h
AHL: Belleville Senators vs. Toronto Marlies BUY Toronto Marlies 51¢ $48 158d
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 48¢ $98 188d
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 188d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,864.96 · official $8,864.96 (match) · 18 history records