Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:23:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
CA 0xca05…fd9c sports 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+91%) realized +$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +184% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +137% what you keep after slip
Net edge+137%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$23
other 33% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+156.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 50% +86.0%
≤30d 4 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 50% +86.0%
≤90d 4 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 50% +86.0%
all 4 +183.8% +156.8% 50% 50% +86.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +156.8% 50% +86.0%
10% +132.2% 50% +68.2%
15% +109.8% 50% +51.9%
20% +89.2% 50% +37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +106% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +184% · $-wt +106% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$3 · ×4.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 +$5 +59%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$17 +873%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $8 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 45¢ $5 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $19 4h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $3 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records