Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:02:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca05…46c6 other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care Fading edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$95 (+42%) realized +$95 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$48
crypto 38% +$25
sports 7% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +23.3% +11.6% 62% 62% +16.5%
≤30d 16 +23.3% +11.6% 62% 62% +16.5%
≤90d 16 +23.3% +11.6% 62% 62% +16.5%
all 16 +23.3% +11.6% 62% 62% +16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.6% 62% +16.5%
10% +0.9% 44% +5.4%
15% -8.8% 44% -4.8%
20% -17.8% 31% -14.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.31 per $1 lost it wins $2.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$95
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $26 −$3 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 26 $4 +$3 +66%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 +$3 +48%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $7 +$11 +145%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $15 +$2 +11%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $23 +$5 +20%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +12%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 +$29 +107%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $16 −$5 -33%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $17 +$28 +168%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $23 +$33 +141%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $18 −$8 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $24 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $26 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 31¢ $7 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $4 47h
Solana Up or Down - June 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $13 47h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $8 2d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 3d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $11 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $5 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $9 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 51¢ $8 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $6 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 41¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $21 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $23 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 39¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $6 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $11 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.93 · official $1.93 (match) · 52 history records