Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca06…8822 world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$319 (-41%) realized −$316 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day17.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$202now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$300
world 22% −$2
crypto 12% −$16
finance 4% −$1
other 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 29% -62.6%
≤30d 7 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 29% -62.6%
≤90d 7 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 29% -62.6%
all 7 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 29% -62.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 29% -62.6%
10% -22.2% 29% -66.2%
15% -29.7% 29% -69.5%
20% -36.6% 29% -72.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -59% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -59% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$110 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$202
Realized−$316
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day17.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 27¢ 25¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-5%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 30¢ 29¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+11%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Yes $10 $14 +$4 (+41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $75 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -94%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $403 −$401 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $31 +$58 +188%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $25 +$44 +172%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes $10 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY Yes 30¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $5 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $25 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $80 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 90¢ $403 18h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 36¢ $25 40h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 34¢ $31 40h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $202.44 · official $202.44 (match) · 33 history records