Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:27:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca06…b2c4 weather 81 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$930 (-12%) realized −$933 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate65%52W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days−$461
14 days−$763
30 days−$1,020
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 82% −$355
world 8% −$317
other 6% −$426
sports 3% +$91
crypto 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -6.2% -15.1% 65% 56% -18.2%
≤30d 80 +0.5% -9.0% 65% 51% -21.2%
≤90d 80 +0.5% -9.0% 65% 51% -21.2%
all 80 +0.5% -9.0% 65% 51% -21.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 51% -21.2%
10% -17.7% 24% -28.7%
15% -25.7% 15% -35.6%
20% -33.0% 8% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$71 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized−$933
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses52 / 28
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage18d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? No 85¢ 88¢ $102 $104 +$3 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? Jun 17 $86 +$17 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $75 +$11 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $67 +$7 +10%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $54 +$14 +25%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $37 +$17 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $272 −$243 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $151 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? Jun 14 $77 +$15 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $50 −$40 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 +$42 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $101 +$13 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $123 −$111 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $151 +$20 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $121 +$22 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $101 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $86 +$15 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $86 +$27 +31%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $100 +$10 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $105 −$19 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $91 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $289 −$287 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 −$29 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $151 +$17 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $105 −$104 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $152 −$32 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 12? Jun 12 $53 +$24 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $46 +$7 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $170 +$75 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $44 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $152 +$48 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $115 −$79 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 12? Jun 11 $182 −$12 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $297 +$47 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $39 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $192 +$51 +27%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 $0 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $166 +$29 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $12 +$23 +184%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $121 +$21 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 +$8 +134%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $8 +$12 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 10? Jun 10 $101 +$19 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 10 $36 +$4 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $61 +$26 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on June 17? BUY No 85¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $102 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 17? BUY No 83¢ $86 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $86 10h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 87¢ $75 20h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $74 22h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 90¢ $67 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 99¢ $68 42h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 79¢ $54 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $54 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 68¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 9¢ $29 2d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 82¢ $272 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $124 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $64 2d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $92 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 48¢ $10 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? SELL No 19¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 82¢ $77 3d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? BUY No 81¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $50 3d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 80¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $51 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $194 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $114 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? SELL No 8¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $123 3d
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 87¢ $101 3d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $152 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $171 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.24 · official $102.40 · 201 history records