Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:17:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
CA 0xca07…2a05 other 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$29 (+2%) realized +$30 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$191per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$431
sports 32% +$440
world 3% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +52.3% +37.8% 75% 75% -8.9%
≤30d 4 +52.3% +37.8% 75% 75% -8.9%
≤90d 4 +52.3% +37.8% 75% 75% -8.9%
all 4 +52.3% +37.8% 75% 75% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 75% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here +24.6% 75% -17.6%
15% +12.5% 75% -25.6%
20% +1.5% 50% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$148 vs −$436 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized+$30
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$191
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$12 +118%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$5 +49%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $475 +$428 +90%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $903 −$436 -48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 44¢ $10 35m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 57m
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 41¢ $13 3h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 3h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $903 8h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 52¢ $475 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 46¢ $468 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $101 8h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 86¢ $100 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 57¢ $15 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY 60¢ $20 24h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06- BUY 17¢ $51 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.10 · official $29.10 (match) · 21 history records