Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:08:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca09…d50e sports 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$711 (-9%) realized −$239 · open −$472
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate42%22W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$120est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$147now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,007
7 days−$1,489
14 days−$749
30 days−$919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$887
world 9% −$552
other 3% +$78
crypto 1% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -27.9% -34.8% 30% 30% -42.5%
≤30d 53 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -20.8%
≤90d 53 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -20.8%
all 53 -10.4% -18.9% 42% 40% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.9% 40% -20.8%
10% -26.7% 40% -28.4%
15% -33.8% 40% -35.3%
20% -40.3% 40% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$127 vs −$120 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$147
Realized−$239
Unrealized−$472
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses22 / 31
Est. fees paid−$120
Open positions2
Markets (closed)53 / 55
History coverage16d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $143 $141 −$2 (-1%)
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 41¢ $476 $6 −$470 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 17 $204 −$200 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $102 +$116 +114%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $733 −$723 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) Jun 16 $203 −$200 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $213 −$40 -19%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $306 −$120 -39%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $690 −$552 -80%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $102 +$136 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $101 +$82 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 14 $102 +$136 +134%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 14 $51 −$32 -62%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $304 +$283 +93%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $152 −$150 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics: O/U 170.5 Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-10.5) Jun 12 $203 +$216 +106%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Liberty vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 12 $122 −$20 -16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $171 +$144 +84%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $81 +$71 +88%
Spread: Toronto Tempo (-7.5) Jun 10 $203 −$200 -99%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $51 −$23 -45%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $153 +$242 +158%
DR Congo vs. Chile: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $51 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 09 $355 +$358 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$42 +82%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Jun 08 $67 −$31 -47%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 08 $64 −$63 -98%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 +$45 +90%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Kashima Antlers vs. Vissel Kōbe: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $152 +$111 +73%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: O/U 3.5 Jun 06 $51 +$40 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $227 −$143 -63%
Will Canada vs. Republic of Ireland end in a draw? Jun 06 $203 +$178 +88%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Georgia vs. Bahrain end in a draw? Jun 05 $51 +$3 +6%
Belarus vs. Syria: O/U 3.5 Jun 05 $101 −$100 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-05? Jun 05 $202 +$128 +64%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $102 +$102 +101%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $76 +$132 +172%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Slovenia (-1.5) Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Valencia (-11.5) Jun 03 $101 −$100 -99%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 03 $115 +$107 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic to score first vs. Mexico? BUY Yes 37¢ $146 9m
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 22¢ $27 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 51¢ $101 8h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $458 11h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 33¢ $102 24h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 49¢ $102 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $102 33h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $733 37h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 64¢ $101 47h
Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5) BUY Toronto Tempo 48¢ $203 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 50¢ $158 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 51¢ $15 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 23¢ $186 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $213 2d
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 37¢ $306 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $138 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Cabo Verde 100¢ $238 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $639 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $102 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners SELL Under 99¢ $183 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Atlanta Dream 95¢ $238 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $101 4d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) SELL Atlanta Dream 18¢ $19 4d
Atlanta Dream vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Atlanta Dream 40¢ $102 4d
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) BUY Atlanta Dream 46¢ $51 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $146.95 · official $170.26 · 104 history records