Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
CA 0xca09…511b sports 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 17d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$375
7 days+$81
14 days+$81
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$38
other 8% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.4% -8.3% 53% 47% -7.2%
≤30d 31 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 45% -10.7%
≤90d 31 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 45% -10.7%
all 31 -1.9% -11.2% 52% 45% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 45% -10.7%
10% -19.7% 39% -19.3%
15% -27.5% 35% -27.1%
20% -34.6% 32% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$62 vs −$69 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

17d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage17d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 64¢ 55¢ $45 $38 −$7 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $48 −$3 -6%
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura Jun 19 $100 −$98 -99%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $110 +$125 +114%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $118 −$117 -99%
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif Jun 18 $68 +$50 +73%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski Jun 18 $111 −$43 -38%
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng Jun 18 $128 −$18 -14%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $90 +$51 +57%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $40 +$37 +93%
England to score first vs. Croatia? Jun 17 $282 +$163 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $171 +$111 +64%
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic Jun 17 $32 −$16 -49%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $160 +$27 +17%
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 17 $55 +$104 +188%
ITF Zhengzhou: Daria Zelinskaya vs Xi Luo Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $346 −$175 -51%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Manoj Dhamne Manas Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Miomir Kecmanovic Jun 16 $111 +$80 +72%
Poznan: Milos Karol vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 16 $168 +$29 +17%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Carlo Alberto Caniato Jun 16 $111 +$56 +51%
Parma: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Federico Bondioli Jun 16 $79 −$78 -99%
Parma: Daniel Galan vs Zsombor Piros Jun 16 $125 −$32 -26%
ITF Maanshan: Evan Zhu vs Hoyoung Roh Jun 16 $59 −$59 -99%
ITF Taipei: Fang An Lin vs Mio Mushika Jun 16 $83 −$50 -61%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$22 +36%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $56 +$5 +9%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $113 +$118 +105%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
HSBC Championships: Jack Pinnington Jones vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 15 $70 +$4 +6%
Brescia: Alessandra Mazzola vs Luisina Giovannini Jun 15 $56 +$14 +26%
Perugia: Henrique Rocha vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 02 $240 −$125 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $45 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Hamad Medjedovic 43¢ $46 1h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Hamad Medjedovic 44¢ $48 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz SELL Ben Shelton 41¢ $48 1h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $37 2h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 45¢ $18 2h
ITF Tokyo: Tai Leonard Sach vs Masamichi Imamura BUY Tai Leonard Sach 55¢ $100 7h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri SELL Daniel Rincon 98¢ $235 15h
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri BUY Daniel Rincon 45¢ $110 17h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 73¢ $118 19h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif SELL Mayar Sherif 100¢ $118 19h
Brescia: Jennifer Ruggeri vs Mayar Sherif BUY Mayar Sherif 57¢ $68 20h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski SELL Jan Choinski 25¢ $68 20h
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Jan Choinski BUY Jan Choinski 39¢ $111 21h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng SELL Chun-Hsin Tseng 38¢ $110 21h
Parma: Laslo Djere vs Chun-Hsin Tseng BUY Chun-Hsin Tseng 42¢ $128 21h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $78 24h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 60¢ $10 24h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez SELL Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $3 24h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Viktorija Golubic 54¢ $12 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 51¢ $40 39h
England to score first vs. Croatia? SELL Yes 99¢ $445 39h
England to score first vs. Croatia? BUY Yes 62¢ $282 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $282 40h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 60¢ $171 42h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic SELL Sarah Rakotomanga 28¢ $16 42h
Brescia: Sarah Rakotomanga vs Mia Ristic BUY Sarah Rakotomanga 52¢ $32 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 91¢ $187 42h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $160 42h
Halle Open: Learner Tien vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 34¢ $55 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.32 · official $38.32 (match) · 70 history records