Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7.5
score
CA 0xca09…5e81 sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist
Total PnL +$3,531 (+22%) realized +$3,540 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate67%20W / 10L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$492per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$2,051now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,884
7 days+$2,553
14 days+$3,314
30 days+$3,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$2,157
sports 13% +$1,148
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +13.1% +2.3% 77% 62% +10.3%
≤30d 30 +37.5% +24.4% 67% 60% +11.7%
≤90d 30 +37.5% +24.4% 67% 60% +11.7%
all 30 +37.5% +24.4% 67% 60% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.4% 60% +11.7%
10% +12.5% 53% +1.1%
15% +1.7% 53% -8.7%
20% -8.3% 43% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +24% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$568) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +52% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$228 vs −$125 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.66 per $1 lost it wins $3.66
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$2,051
Realized+$3,540
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses20 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage10d
Avg bet$492
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $1,840 $1,830 −$10 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $120 $119 −$1 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $4,954 +$422 +8%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $1,135 +$526 +46%
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $94 −$94 -100%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 22 $50 +$47 +95%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $820 +$326 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,051 +$584 +56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $145 −$142 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,213 +$214 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $229 +$121 +53%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $758 +$458 +60%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +48%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $131 +$69 +53%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $66 +$34 +51%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +121%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$107 +528%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $312 −$132 -42%
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $624 −$300 -48%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $54 −$46 -84%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $568 +$1,332 +234%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $288 −$279 -97%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$17 +163%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $115 +$118 +103%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Jun 14 $194 −$171 -88%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $103 +$106 +103%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $20 +$4 +19%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $21 +$40 +196%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $53 −$51 -97%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,665 55m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $102 56m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $102 56m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 56m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $102 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $102 1h
France vs. Iraq: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 40¢ $94 7h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $1,135 10h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $1,146 10h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 50¢ $50 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $4,954 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $820 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $477 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $591 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 99¢ $567 26h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,051 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $145 34h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $2,213 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $229 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $748 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $131 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $67 6d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $127 7d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $180 7d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 45¢ $127 7d
Spain to score first vs. Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 48¢ $198 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,050.68 · official $2,050.91 (match) · 95 history records