Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:42:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
CA 0xca0d…2602 sports 456 markets active 2h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,270 (-6%) realized −$7,270 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate47%215W / 241L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$251per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$654est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$19
14 days−$217
30 days−$318
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$10,864
sports 47% +$2,975
world 0% −$101
crypto 0% −$15
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 38% -12.6%
≤30d 38 -15.9% -23.9% 45% 39% -25.4%
≤90d 346 -5.5% -14.5% 49% 46% -17.8%
all 456 -7.5% -16.3% 47% 45% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 45% -15.8%
10% -24.4% 38% -23.9%
15% -31.7% 30% -31.2%
20% -38.4% 23% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$134 vs −$153 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7,270
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses215 / 241
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$654
Open positions0
Markets (closed)456 / 456
History coverage111d
Avg bet$251
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 456 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $88 +$8 +10%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $30 −$25 -82%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $13 −$11 -80%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$29 +188%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -9%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $22 −$6 -27%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $70 +$32 +46%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $17 +$10 +59%
Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots Jun 22 $12 −$12 -99%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $20 +$1 +6%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $42 +$19 +46%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $17 +$6 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$7 +65%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 −$5 -54%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $27 +$8 +30%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $12 −$10 -84%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $25 −$10 -41%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$6 +79%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $28 −$21 -73%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $124 −$95 -77%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $19 −$19 -99%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $80 −$80 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $35 +$39 +112%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $53 −$38 -71%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $117 +$104 +90%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$79 -78%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $66 +$36 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $75 −$74 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $95 +$100 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $68 +$48 +70%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $159 −$156 -98%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 20 $260 +$168 +65%
Hamburg European Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Alex de Minaur May 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 17 $30 +$24 +79%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $41 −$40 -99%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$27 +52%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 +$47 +93%
FC St. Pauli 1910 vs. VfL Wolfsburg: O/U 2.5 May 16 $45 −$44 -99%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $51 −$35 -68%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 16 $48 +$33 +70%
Aston Villa FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 1.5 May 15 $101 +$26 +26%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Tallon Griekspoor May 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-15? May 15 $51 +$31 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $97 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $88 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 34¢ $15 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 6h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $16 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 43¢ $16 6h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $22 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $102 11h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $70 13h
Omar Marmoush: 4+ shots BUY Yes 52¢ $12 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 30h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 62¢ $17 30h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 63¢ $21 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 88¢ $50 31h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $20 33h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 70¢ $40 33h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 3d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 74¢ $17 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 71¢ $30 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 30¢ $5 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $10 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $35 6d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $27 6d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1098 history records